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Research Database
STERV.HSE Recommendation Accumulate
Risk - Target price 12
  Share price 11.56
 
 Company Views - Stora Enso
Estimates updated
Price updated
Page generated
Older estimates		 23.Oct.2003 22:23 (EEST)
6.Nov.2003 22:44 (EET)
7.Nov.2003 03:18 (EET)
 

Analyst: Henry Nurminen, +358 10 236 4709
henry.nurminen@mandatum.fi
Base figures 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Net sales 10489.6 10635.7 13017.0 13508.8 12782.6 12188.5 12908.6 13234.0 13402.2 13864.5 14339.4 14828.7 15332.9 15838.9 16353.7 16881.1 17423.4 17980.9 18556.3 19150.1  
EBITDA 1852.2 2310.2 3054.9 2762.8 2226.6 1783.5 2033.8 2365.1 2394.2 2650.1 2688.1 2730.1 2775.8 2823.7 2857.8 2876.8 2849.3 2890.4 2931.2 3011.8  
EBIT 700.8 1399.6 1925.5 1495.2 926.6 596.5 890.8 1228.0 1272.3 1580.6 1620.4 1660.8 1702.0 1742.3 1766.2 1772.5 1794.6 1834.1 1855.6 1915.0  
Fixed assets 11163.6 11438.5 14150.4 13901.7 12189.2 12146.2 12083.5 11923.6 11793.2 11774.2 11790.3 11839.0 11918.4 12025.7 12158.9 12316.3 12496.7 12699.0 12922.4 13166.1  
Total equity 5550.9 6158.5 8720.2 9039.2 8187.3 8029.4 8075.1 8378.4 8740.5 9332.0 9671.3 9703.9 9730.1 9756.6 9770.6 9779.5 9808.4 9832.9 9838.7 9870.1  
Int.bear. debt 6555.0 5769.6 6855.5 6409.5 5175.6 4296.7 4197.2 3672.3 3089.9 2482.1 2163.9 2187.6 2251.1 2342.6 2473.8 2636.7 2869.8 3147.4 3467.9 3786.5  
Total assets 15422.2 16038.2 21322.8 20558.4 18214.2 17335.5 17404.1 17237.8 17046.1 17108.5 17210.2 17349.8 17525.1 17729.0 17961.8 18223.3 18577.4 18974.3 19398.5 19849.5  
Gross capex 970.4 1111.4 5603.5 1066.3 -1633.0 1024.0 960.4 857.2 871.5 970.5 1003.8 1038.0 1073.3 1108.7 1144.8 1181.7 1219.6 1258.7 1298.9 1340.5  

Key Ratios 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Sales growth % 4.9% 1.4% 22.4% 3.8% -5.4% -4.6% 5.9% 2.5% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%  
EBITDA % 17.7% 21.7% 23.5% 20.5% 17.4% 14.6% 15.8% 17.9% 17.9% 19.1% 18.7% 18.4% 18.1% 17.8% 17.5% 17.0% 16.4% 16.1% 15.8% 15.7%  
EBIT % 6.7% 13.2% 14.8% 11.1% 7.2% 4.9% 6.9% 9.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.3% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 10.0%  
Asset turnover 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
ROI % 5.8% 12.3% 14.7% 10.5% 7.5% 4.9% 7.5% 10.4% 10.9% 13.6% 13.9% 14.2% 14.4% 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% 14.3% 14.4%  
ROE % 3.3% 13.1% 15.0% 10.5% 5.9% 3.4% 5.4% 8.4% 8.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 11.4% 11.5% 11.6% 11.9% 12.1% 12.1% 12.4%  
Equity ratio % 36.0% 38.4% 40.9% 44.0% 45.0% 46.3% 46.4% 48.6% 51.3% 54.5% 56.2% 55.9% 55.5% 55.0% 54.4% 53.7% 52.8% 51.8% 50.7% 49.7%  

DCF Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 700.8 1399.6 1925.5 1495.2 926.6 596.5 890.8 1228.0 1272.3 1580.6 1620.4 1660.8 1702.0 1742.3 1766.2 1772.5 1794.6 1834.1 1855.6 1915.0  
+/- Share of assoc. 9.9 9.7 20.6 79.6 14.6 -16.0 -15.0 -14.0 -13.0 -12.0 -11.0 -10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0  
- Taxes on cont. oper. -146.0 -370.5 -521.3 -302.0 -230.8 -131.3 -245.8 -358.1 -384.1 -465.3 -485.1 -499.4 -510.9 -522.5 -528.7 -520.1 -504.9 -508.7 -511.2 -524.7  
- Tax, fin. expenses -139.9 -93.5 -110.3 -99.8 -78.8 -53.2 -71.7 -62.5 -50.3 -48.1 -39.9 -37.6 -38.3 -39.5 -41.3 -42.9 -46.0 -49.9 -54.6 -59.6  
+ Tax, fin. income 0.0 11.5 22.7 24.7 25.0 11.1 13.7 13.7 13.7 10.3 9.7 9.0 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2  
Operating cash flow 424.8 956.8 1337.1 1197.7 656.6 407.1 572.0 807.1 838.6 1065.5 1094.0 1122.8 1152.1 1180.8 1198.1 1212.5 1248.1 1281.0 1296.7 1338.9  
+ Total depreciation 1151.4 910.6 1129.4 1267.6 1300.0 1187.0 1143.1 1137.1 1121.9 1069.5 1067.7 1069.3 1073.9 1081.4 1091.6 1104.3 1054.7 1056.4 1075.6 1096.8  
Gross cash flow 1576.3 1867.4 2466.5 2465.3 1956.6 1594.1 1715.1 1944.2 1960.5 2135.0 2161.7 2192.1 2226.0 2262.3 2289.7 2316.8 2302.8 2337.3 2372.3 2435.7  
- Ch. in working cap. 76.8 10.9 15.2 -39.5 56.0 -8.4 -96.5 -43.6 -22.5 -62.0 -63.6 -65.6 -67.6 -67.8 -69.0 -70.7 -72.7 -74.7 -77.1 -79.6  
+ Inc. in nib. l-t liab. 240.6 474.1 946.6 -295.3 -224.3 171.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
- Gross capex -970.4 -1111.4 -5603.5 -1066.3 1633.0 -1024.0 -960.4 -857.2 -871.5 -970.5 -1003.8 -1038.0 -1073.3 -1108.7 -1144.8 -1181.7 -1219.6 -1258.7 -1298.9 -1340.5  
Free oper. cash flow 923.3 1241.0 -2175.2 1064.2 3421.3 733.3 658.2 1043.4 1066.5 1102.6 1094.4 1088.5 1085.1 1085.7 1076.0 1064.4 1010.5 1003.9 996.2 1015.7  
+/- Other items -0.2 47.4 302.7 -3.0 -726.4 -32.1 -5.5 -3.8 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
FCFF 923.1 1288.4 -1872.5 1061.2 2694.9 701.2 652.7 1039.6 1062.7 1102.6 1094.4 1088.5 1085.1 1085.7 1076.0 1064.4 1010.5 1003.9 996.2 1015.7 24274.4
Disc. FCFF           691.5 598.7 887.0 843.3 813.8 751.3 695.1 644.5 599.9 552.9 508.5 448.9 414.9 382.9 363.1 8677.1
Cum. disc. FCFF           17875.4 17181.8 16583.1 15696.1 14852.8 14039.0 13287.6 12592.5 11948.1 11348.2 10795.3 10286.9 9837.9 9423.0 9040.2  
- Int-bear. debt           4296.7                              
+ Cash and bank           548.5                              
+ Inv. above BV           0.0                              
Value of equity           14125.1                              
/ No of shares           864.2                              
Fair value (DCF)           16.34                              

EVA Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 700.8 1399.6 1925.5 1495.2 926.6 596.5 890.8 1228.0 1272.3 1580.6 1620.4 1660.8 1702.0 1742.3 1766.2 1772.5 1794.6 1834.1 1855.6 1915.0  
- Taxes on EBIT -258.4 -430.5 -576.4 -326.8 -242.0 -147.7 -271.7 -374.5 -388.0 -482.1 -494.2 -506.5 -519.1 -531.4 -538.7 -531.8 -538.4 -550.2 -556.7 -574.5  
NOPLAT 442.4 969.1 1349.1 1168.4 684.6 448.8 619.1 853.4 884.2 1098.5 1126.1 1154.3 1182.9 1210.9 1227.5 1240.8 1256.2 1283.8 1298.9 1340.5 1382.0
+/- Other items -17.7 35.1 290.7 26.3 -754.5 -73.9 -52.5 -50.1 -49.4 -32.7 -32.0 -31.4 -30.7 -30.0 -29.3 -28.2 -8.2 -2.8 -2.1 -1.4  
- Cost of capital -893.5 -864.1 -843.8 -1121.0 -1124.2 -911.3 -884.8 -878.3 -860.6 -843.5 -840.7 -840.6 -843.2 -848.3 -855.4 -865.2 -876.3 -894.2 -915.0 -937.6 -783.8
EVA -468.8 140.0 796.1 73.7 -1194.0 -536.4 -318.2 -75.0 -25.8 222.3 253.4 282.3 309.0 332.7 342.8 347.4 371.7 386.8 381.8 401.5 598.2
PV of TRM EVA                                         13852.6
Disc. EVA           -528.9 -291.9 -64.0 -20.4 164.1 174.0 180.3 183.5 183.8 176.2 165.9 165.2 159.9 146.7 143.5 4951.7
PV of cap. base change                                         -846.9
Cum. disc. EVA           5042.5 5571.5 5863.4 5927.4 5947.8 5783.8 5609.8 5429.5 5246.0 5062.2 4886.0 4720.1 4555.0 4395.1 4248.4  
+ Capital inv.           12835.3                              
- Int-bear. debt           4296.7                              
+ Cash and bank           548.5                              
+/- Inv. above BV           0.0                              
Value of equity           14129.6                              
/ No of shares           864.2                              
Fair value (EVA)           16.35                              

Cost of capital (WACC) 2003e
 
Tax rate (WACC) % 29.0%
Target D/(D+E) 20.0%
Cost of debt % 5.5%
Equity beta 1.0
Equity market risk premium (%-points) 4.0%
Risk-free interest rate 4.3%
Cost of equity 8.4%
WACC % 7.5%