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Research Database
UPM1V.HSE Recommendation Buy
Risk - Target price 16
  Share price 16.16
 
 Company Views - UPM-Kymmene
Estimates updated
Price updated
Page generated
Older estimates		 23.Oct.2003 22:26 (EEST)
6.Nov.2003 23:00 (EET)
7.Nov.2003 03:27 (EET)
 

Analyst: Henry Nurminen, +358 10 236 4709
henry.nurminen@mandatum.fi
Base figures 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Net sales 8364.8 8261.0 9583.0 9918.0 10475.0 9853.0 10449.9 10673.3 10781.4 11166.8 11561.8 11968.7 12387.6 12790.2 13189.8 13593.8 14005.8 14426.0 14858.8 15304.6  
EBITDA 2268.9 1589.0 2234.0 2138.0 2126.0 1604.7 1815.7 2134.3 2082.8 2451.9 2492.8 2535.8 2568.4 2610.9 2639.9 2654.8 2682.7 2724.7 2752.9 2826.9  
EBIT 1620.0 975.0 1560.0 1394.0 1108.0 702.7 914.0 1239.4 1190.1 1552.2 1584.0 1615.8 1635.2 1662.7 1675.1 1672.0 1680.7 1702.3 1708.8 1760.0  
Fixed assets 8609.5 8288.0 9336.0 10750.0 10124.0 10031.9 9945.2 9907.6 9966.1 10047.9 10151.6 10275.9 10419.9 10580.4 10755.7 10944.7 11146.6 11361.1 11587.7 11826.5  
Total equity 5334.4 5558.0 6175.0 6838.0 6953.0 6843.2 6879.2 7155.5 7397.4 7906.4 8214.6 8427.5 8543.1 8558.7 8565.8 8558.2 8558.6 8568.1 8565.5 8595.4  
Int.bear. debt 4273.0 3681.0 4552.0 6719.0 5906.0 5658.5 5406.2 4999.5 4704.3 4211.1 3942.0 3790.8 3758.5 3839.9 3944.2 4080.9 4216.9 4361.1 4531.6 4683.9  
Total assets 11449.2 11580.0 13113.0 16431.0 15374.0 15096.2 15078.5 14988.4 14957.0 15039.2 15146.2 15277.8 15432.9 15599.2 15779.4 15974.6 16185.5 16411.5 16653.8 16912.5  
Gross capex 920.2 553.4 2096.0 3455.0 255.0 684.9 690.0 732.2 826.2 856.5 887.5 919.4 952.2 983.7 1015.0 1046.7 1079.0 1111.9 1145.8 1180.7  

Key Ratios 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Sales growth % -1.3% -1.2% 16.0% 3.5% 5.6% -5.9% 6.1% 2.1% 1.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%  
EBITDA % 27.1% 19.2% 23.3% 21.6% 20.3% 16.3% 17.4% 20.0% 19.3% 22.0% 21.6% 21.2% 20.7% 20.4% 20.0% 19.5% 19.2% 18.9% 18.5% 18.5%  
EBIT % 19.4% 11.8% 16.3% 14.1% 10.6% 7.1% 8.7% 11.6% 11.0% 13.9% 13.7% 13.5% 13.2% 13.0% 12.7% 12.3% 12.0% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5%  
Asset turnover 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2  
ROI % 17.7% 10.8% 16.7% 12.0% 8.8% 5.8% 7.7% 10.4% 10.1% 13.0% 13.3% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.5% 13.4% 13.4% 13.3% 13.5%  
ROE % 20.8% 7.3% 17.5% 12.3% 8.4% 4.6% 6.2% 9.5% 8.7% 11.8% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.7% 11.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 11.7% 12.1%  
Equity ratio % 46.6% 48.0% 47.1% 41.6% 45.2% 45.3% 45.6% 47.7% 49.4% 52.6% 54.2% 55.2% 55.3% 54.8% 54.3% 53.6% 52.9% 52.2% 51.4% 50.8%  

DCF Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 1620.0 975.0 1560.0 1394.0 1108.0 702.7 914.0 1239.4 1190.1 1552.2 1584.0 1615.8 1635.2 1662.7 1675.1 1672.0 1680.7 1702.3 1708.8 1760.0  
+/- Share of assoc. 24.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
- Taxes on cont. oper. -406.7 -404.0 -394.0 -314.2 -254.7 -168.1 -220.7 -316.5 -302.8 -409.2 -424.3 -435.7 -441.7 -448.0 -450.8 -447.7 -447.9 -451.7 -450.7 -462.6  
- Tax, fin. expenses -71.1 -104.5 -66.9 -96.3 -85.3 -69.8 -85.5 -82.6 -82.6 -76.3 -71.0 -67.2 -66.4 -67.4 -68.2 -70.6 -73.1 -75.8 -78.7 -81.7  
+ Tax, fin. income 12.7 16.8 27.7 20.1 12.8 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9  
Operating cash flow 1179.6 485.4 1126.8 1003.6 780.8 474.5 617.8 850.3 814.7 1074.1 1095.8 1119.6 1133.3 1153.1 1162.0 1159.8 1165.9 1181.2 1186.1 1222.6  
+ Total depreciation 648.9 614.0 674.0 744.0 1018.0 902.0 901.7 894.9 892.7 899.7 908.8 920.0 933.2 948.2 964.8 982.7 1002.0 1022.5 1044.1 1066.9  
Gross cash flow 1828.4 1099.4 1800.8 1747.6 1798.8 1376.5 1519.5 1745.2 1707.4 1973.8 2004.6 2039.6 2066.5 2101.3 2126.8 2142.6 2167.9 2203.9 2230.1 2289.5  
- Ch. in working cap. 20.8 308.8 -244.0 148.0 -299.0 109.3 28.5 -23.3 -8.9 -43.5 -44.6 -46.1 -47.5 -45.5 -45.0 -45.5 -46.5 -47.5 -49.0 -50.5  
+ Inc. in nib. l-t liab. 3.0 206.0 -82.0 -70.0 -19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
- Gross capex -920.2 -553.4 -2096.0 -3455.0 -255.0 -684.9 -690.0 -732.2 -826.2 -856.5 -887.5 -919.4 -952.2 -983.7 -1015.0 -1046.7 -1079.0 -1111.9 -1145.8 -1180.7  
Free oper. cash flow 932.1 1060.8 -621.2 -1629.4 1225.8 800.9 857.9 989.6 872.3 1073.8 1072.5 1074.2 1066.8 1072.2 1066.7 1050.4 1042.6 1044.4 1035.4 1058.3  
+/- Other items -0.8 424.6 342.7 156.2 -30.0 -36.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
FCFF 931.3 1485.4 -278.5 -1473.2 1195.8 764.7 857.9 989.6 872.3 1073.8 1072.5 1074.2 1066.8 1072.2 1066.7 1050.4 1042.6 1044.4 1035.4 1058.3 25526.0
Disc. FCFF           754.5 789.1 848.5 697.2 800.1 745.0 695.6 643.9 603.3 559.6 513.7 475.2 443.9 410.2 390.8 9425.8
Cum. disc. FCFF           18799.9 18041.8 17256.3 16404.3 15709.8 14909.7 14162.0 13466.4 12822.4 12219.1 11659.5 11145.9 10670.6 10226.8 9816.6  
- Int-bear. debt           5658.5                              
+ Cash and bank           394.1                              
+ Inv. above BV           182.7                              
Value of equity           13714.7                              
/ No of shares           523.6                              
Fair value (DCF)           26.19                              

EVA Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 1620.0 975.0 1560.0 1394.0 1108.0 702.7 914.0 1239.4 1190.1 1552.2 1584.0 1615.8 1635.2 1662.7 1675.1 1672.0 1680.7 1702.3 1708.8 1760.0  
- Taxes on EBIT -455.6 -482.7 -427.4 -378.2 -294.6 -193.8 -260.5 -353.2 -339.2 -442.4 -451.4 -460.5 -466.0 -473.9 -477.4 -476.5 -479.0 -485.1 -487.0 -501.6  
NOPLAT 1164.4 492.3 1132.6 1015.8 813.4 509.0 653.5 886.2 850.9 1109.8 1132.5 1155.3 1169.1 1188.8 1197.7 1195.5 1201.7 1217.1 1221.8 1258.4 1259.5
+/- Other items 14.3 417.7 336.9 144.0 -62.7 -70.7 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6 -35.6  
- Cost of capital -642.1 -640.7 -618.8 -746.4 -938.9 -903.5 -880.3 -862.9 -852.8 -848.6 -848.6 -850.3 -853.6 -858.4 -864.3 -871.2 -879.2 -888.2 -898.1 -909.1 -410.2
EVA 536.7 269.3 850.7 413.4 -188.1 -465.1 -262.5 -12.3 -37.5 225.6 248.3 269.4 279.9 294.8 297.8 288.6 286.9 293.3 288.0 313.7 849.2
PV of TRM EVA                                         19884.0
Disc. EVA           -458.9 -241.4 -10.6 -29.9 168.1 172.5 174.4 169.0 165.9 156.2 141.2 130.8 124.7 114.1 115.9 7343.5
PV of cap. base change                                         -2594.5
Cum. disc. EVA           5640.8 6099.7 6341.2 6351.7 6381.7 6213.6 6041.1 5866.6 5697.7 5531.8 5375.6 5234.4 5103.6 4979.0 4864.9  
+ Capital inv.           13159.2                              
- Int-bear. debt           5658.5                              
+ Cash and bank           394.1                              
+/- Inv. above BV           182.7                              
Value of equity           13718.4                              
/ No of shares           523.6                              
Fair value (EVA)           26.20                              

Cost of capital (WACC) 2003e
 
Tax rate (WACC) % 29.0%
Target D/(D+E) 20.0%
Cost of debt % 5.0%
Equity beta 1.0
Equity market risk premium (%-points) 4.0%
Risk-free interest rate 4.3%
Cost of equity 8.2%
WACC % 7.3%