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Research Database
MEO1V.HSE Recommendation Reduce
Risk - Target price 8.5
  Share price 9.58
 
 Company Views - Metso
Estimates updated
Price updated
Page generated
Older estimates		 30.Oct.2003 06:08 (EET)
6.Nov.2003 22:40 (EET)
7.Nov.2003 03:00 (EET)
 

Analyst: Henry Nurminen, +358 10 236 4709
henry.nurminen@mandatum.fi
Base figures 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Net sales 3695.0 3387.0 3891.0 4343.0 4691.0 4175.0 4295.9 4467.3 4585.2 4748.0 4914.2 5086.2 5264.2 5448.4 5639.1 5836.5 6040.8 6252.2 6471.0 6697.5  
EBITDA 377.0 120.0 328.1 352.9 357.0 264.7 321.9 387.9 390.5 452.3 510.5 502.3 513.2 524.4 503.1 505.1 504.2 517.2 530.6 535.0  
EBIT 246.0 -10.0 200.1 203.9 160.0 78.7 138.3 207.1 212.1 270.6 324.3 325.5 331.6 337.8 321.4 318.1 321.7 329.0 336.5 334.9  
Fixed assets 996.0 982.0 962.0 1158.0 1110.0 1113.0 1093.4 1076.7 1099.4 1130.6 1162.5 1195.5 1229.7 1265.1 1301.7 1339.6 1378.8 1419.4 1461.4 1504.9  
Total equity 1216.0 1094.0 1433.0 1476.0 1389.0 1011.0 1024.8 1083.0 1134.3 1214.7 1333.7 1426.8 1522.5 1604.0 1672.4 1726.1 1768.3 1790.4 1812.9 1817.7  
Int.bear. debt 581.0 776.0 548.0 1568.0 1353.0 1429.7 1410.7 1319.5 1216.9 1148.0 1091.8 977.0 911.0 861.8 888.2 884.4 899.7 940.4 983.7 1047.7  
Total assets 2798.0 3169.0 3564.0 5042.0 4399.0 3951.8 3985.2 4007.1 3993.5 4057.0 4123.0 4156.3 4243.1 4334.3 4440.0 4550.6 4676.0 4806.6 4942.4 5083.6  
Gross capex 166.8 97.0 146.0 1174.0 7.0 -80.0 110.0 110.1 147.0 158.9 164.1 169.8 175.8 181.9 188.3 194.9 201.7 208.8 216.1 223.6  

Key Ratios 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
Sales growth % -5.2% -8.3% 14.9% 11.6% 8.0% -11.0% 2.9% 4.0% 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%  
EBITDA % 10.2% 3.5% 8.4% 8.1% 7.6% 6.3% 7.5% 8.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.4% 9.9% 9.7% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.0%  
EBIT % 6.7% -0.3% 5.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.9% 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 5.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 5.7% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0%  
Asset turnover 2.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5  
ROI % 16.9% 1.7% 12.2% 9.8% 6.1% 3.8% 6.4% 9.2% 9.3% 11.9% 13.9% 13.7% 13.8% 13.9% 12.9% 12.4% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0%  
ROE % 15.5% -2.3% 9.6% 8.0% 4.2% 0.6% 4.0% 8.1% 8.3% 11.5% 13.6% 13.0% 12.6% 12.3% 11.2% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.8% 10.6%  
Equity ratio % 43.5% 34.5% 40.2% 29.3% 31.6% 25.6% 25.7% 27.0% 28.4% 29.9% 32.3% 34.3% 35.9% 37.0% 37.6% 37.9% 37.8% 37.2% 36.6% 35.8%  

DCF Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 246.0 -10.0 200.1 203.9 160.0 78.7 138.3 207.1 212.1 270.6 324.3 325.5 331.6 337.8 321.4 318.1 321.7 329.0 336.5 334.9  
+/- Share of assoc. 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
- Taxes on cont. oper. -63.6 0.0 -59.0 -62.0 -24.0 -2.0 -42.3 -62.1 -65.1 -84.1 -101.0 -97.7 -100.4 -103.6 -95.3 -94.6 -92.7 -94.2 -95.6 -94.4  
- Tax, fin. expenses -10.7 0.0 -16.4 -19.4 -15.2 -2.5 -22.2 -23.1 -20.0 -18.9 -17.9 -16.6 -15.1 -14.2 -14.0 -14.2 -14.3 -14.7 -15.4 -16.3  
+ Tax, fin. income 11.1 0.0 10.4 12.2 3.4 0.6 5.2 4.6 3.1 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2  
Operating cash flow 185.8 -7.0 135.1 134.7 124.2 74.8 79.1 126.6 130.1 170.5 207.8 212.9 217.1 221.0 213.2 210.4 215.8 221.5 226.6 225.5  
+ Total depreciation 131.0 130.0 128.0 149.0 197.0 186.0 183.6 180.8 178.4 181.7 186.2 176.8 181.6 186.6 181.7 187.0 182.5 188.2 194.1 200.2  
Gross cash flow 316.8 123.0 263.1 283.7 321.2 260.8 262.7 307.4 308.5 352.1 394.0 389.7 398.7 407.6 394.9 397.4 398.3 409.4 420.7 425.6  
- Ch. in working cap. 44.8 -300.0 185.0 -439.0 121.0 31.0 -62.3 -29.1 -20.0 -27.7 -28.3 -29.2 -30.3 -31.3 -32.4 -33.6 -34.7 -35.9 -37.2 -38.5  
+ Inc. in nib. l-t liab. 12.9 -8.0 30.0 104.0 -31.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
- Gross capex -166.8 -97.0 -146.0 -1174.0 -7.0 80.0 -110.0 -110.1 -147.0 -158.9 -164.1 -169.8 -175.8 -181.9 -188.3 -194.9 -201.7 -208.8 -216.1 -223.6  
Free oper. cash flow 207.8 -282.0 332.1 -1225.3 404.2 394.8 90.4 168.1 141.5 165.6 151.6 190.6 192.7 194.3 124.1 168.9 161.9 164.7 167.4 163.5  
+/- Other items -3.4 -60.0 268.0 24.0 3.0 -303.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
FCFF 204.5 -342.0 600.1 -1201.3 407.1 91.8 90.4 168.1 141.5 165.6 151.6 190.6 192.7 194.3 124.1 168.9 161.9 164.7 167.4 163.5 3949.3
Disc. FCFF           90.6 82.8 142.8 111.5 121.1 102.9 120.0 112.5 105.3 62.4 78.8 70.0 66.1 62.3 56.5 1363.4
Cum. disc. FCFF           2751.4 2660.7 2578.0 2435.0 2323.5 2202.3 2099.4 1979.4 1866.8 1761.3 1698.9 1619.9 1549.6 1483.4 1421.0  
- Int-bear. debt           1429.7                              
+ Cash and bank           208.8                              
+ Inv. above BV           0.0                              
Value of equity           1530.3                              
/ No of shares           136.3                              
Fair value (DCF)           11.22                              

EVA Valuation 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e TRM
 
EBIT 246.0 -10.0 200.1 203.9 160.0 78.7 138.3 207.1 212.1 270.6 324.3 325.5 331.6 337.8 321.4 318.1 321.7 329.0 336.5 334.9  
- Taxes on EBIT -58.6 0.0 -59.6 -60.8 -25.6 -2.2 -42.6 -63.8 -65.3 -83.4 -99.9 -100.3 -102.1 -104.0 -99.0 -98.0 -99.1 -101.3 -103.6 -103.1  
NOPLAT 187.4 -10.0 140.5 143.1 134.4 76.6 95.7 143.3 146.8 187.3 224.4 225.3 229.5 233.8 222.4 220.1 222.6 227.7 232.9 231.7 233.5
+/- Other items -4.9 -57.0 262.6 15.6 -7.3 -304.8 -16.6 -16.6 -16.6 -16.6 -16.6 -12.3 -12.3 -12.3 -9.2 -9.2 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -6.2  
- Cost of capital -110.9 -111.1 -130.1 -114.7 -223.0 -198.6 -173.8 -172.9 -169.7 -168.8 -169.2 -173.6 -175.3 -177.2 -179.3 -186.2 -189.4 -193.6 -198.0 -202.7 -142.7
EVA 71.6 -178.1 273.1 44.0 -95.9 -426.8 -94.7 -46.2 -39.5 1.8 38.6 39.4 41.9 44.2 33.9 24.7 27.0 27.9 28.6 22.9 90.7
PV of TRM EVA                                         2116.3
Disc. EVA           -421.3 -86.8 -39.3 -31.2 1.3 26.2 24.8 24.5 24.0 17.0 11.5 11.7 11.2 10.7 7.9 731.2
PV of cap. base change                                         -287.3
Cum. disc. EVA           36.2 457.4 544.2 583.5 614.6 613.3 587.1 562.3 537.9 513.9 496.9 485.4 473.7 462.5 451.8  
+ Capital inv.           2715.2                              
- Int-bear. debt           1429.7                              
+ Cash and bank           208.8                              
+/- Inv. above BV           0.0                              
Value of equity           1530.4                              
/ No of shares           136.3                              
Fair value (EVA)           11.23                              

Cost of capital (WACC) 2003e
 
Tax rate (WACC) % 31.8%
Target D/(D+E) 10.0%
Cost of debt % 6.0%
Equity beta 1.0
Equity market risk premium (%-points) 4.0%
Risk-free interest rate 4.3%
Cost of equity 8.2%
WACC % 7.8%