Research Database |
| NOK1V.HSE |
Recommendation |
Accumulate |
| Risk - |
Target price |
15.5
| | |
Share price |
15.16 | |
|
Estimates updated
Price updated
Page generated
Older estimates |
17.Oct.2003 12:18 (EEST)
6.Nov.2003 23:00 (EET)
7.Nov.2003 03:01 (EET)
|
Analyst: Erkki Vesola, +358 10 236 4712
erkki.vesola@mandatum.fi
|
| Base figures |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003e |
2004e |
2005e |
2006e |
2007e |
2008e |
2009e |
2010e |
2011e |
2012e |
2013e |
2014e |
2015e |
2016e |
2017e |
TRM |
| |
| Net sales |
13325.7 |
19772.0 |
30376.0 |
31191.0 |
30016.0 |
29010.8 |
31291.5 |
33414.3 |
35747.6 |
38357.2 |
41157.3 |
44038.3 |
47120.9 |
50325.2 |
53646.6 |
57026.4 |
60276.9 |
63351.0 |
66201.8 |
69180.9 |
|
| EBITDA |
2991.4 |
4539.0 |
6730.0 |
6667.0 |
6731.0 |
5906.5 |
6640.5 |
7000.7 |
7232.9 |
7313.1 |
7538.2 |
7806.4 |
8073.0 |
8324.7 |
8553.5 |
8796.4 |
8971.8 |
9077.8 |
9114.1 |
9536.3 |
|
| EBIT |
2489.0 |
3908.0 |
5861.0 |
5237.0 |
5420.0 |
4778.7 |
5862.0 |
6275.3 |
6643.5 |
6712.5 |
6893.8 |
7114.9 |
7333.2 |
7533.0 |
7711.7 |
7858.9 |
7949.0 |
7978.3 |
7944.2 |
8301.7 |
|
|
| Fixed assets |
1880.0 |
2777.0 |
4875.0 |
5226.0 |
4535.0 |
4228.0 |
4309.1 |
4424.4 |
4570.9 |
4775.3 |
4937.3 |
5102.5 |
5275.8 |
5445.3 |
5723.1 |
5976.2 |
6208.9 |
6426.4 |
6630.6 |
6829.6 |
|
| Total equity |
5172.0 |
7500.0 |
10985.0 |
12401.0 |
14454.0 |
16630.7 |
19228.7 |
21549.0 |
23754.7 |
25413.6 |
26981.9 |
28341.1 |
29449.8 |
30278.8 |
30859.6 |
31173.1 |
31461.8 |
31725.3 |
31961.6 |
32487.0 |
|
| Int.bear. debt |
1017.0 |
1062.0 |
1289.0 |
1038.0 |
564.0 |
1225.0 |
1300.0 |
1375.0 |
1375.0 |
1450.0 |
1525.0 |
1600.0 |
1675.0 |
1750.0 |
1825.0 |
1900.0 |
1975.0 |
2050.0 |
2125.0 |
2200.0 |
|
| Total assets |
10034.0 |
14279.0 |
19890.0 |
22427.0 |
23327.0 |
25512.2 |
28254.7 |
31080.3 |
33756.3 |
36014.0 |
38213.5 |
40210.2 |
41989.6 |
43503.4 |
44781.5 |
45791.5 |
46735.6 |
47604.0 |
48386.4 |
49473.9 |
|
|
| Gross capex |
1133.8 |
1898.0 |
3770.0 |
1954.0 |
141.0 |
700.0 |
738.8 |
756.7 |
785.9 |
854.9 |
856.4 |
906.7 |
963.1 |
1011.1 |
1169.7 |
1240.5 |
1305.5 |
1367.0 |
1424.0 |
1483.6 |
|
|
| Key Ratios |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003e |
2004e |
2005e |
2006e |
2007e |
2008e |
2009e |
2010e |
2011e |
2012e |
2013e |
2014e |
2015e |
2016e |
2017e |
TRM |
| |
| Sales growth % |
50.6% |
48.4% |
53.6% |
2.7% |
-3.8% |
-3.3% |
7.9% |
6.8% |
7.0% |
7.3% |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.0% |
6.8% |
6.6% |
6.3% |
5.7% |
5.1% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
|
| EBITDA % |
22.4% |
23.0% |
22.2% |
21.4% |
22.4% |
20.4% |
21.2% |
21.0% |
20.2% |
19.1% |
18.3% |
17.7% |
17.1% |
16.5% |
15.9% |
15.4% |
14.9% |
14.3% |
13.8% |
13.8% |
|
| EBIT % |
18.7% |
19.8% |
19.3% |
16.8% |
18.1% |
16.5% |
18.7% |
18.8% |
18.6% |
17.5% |
16.8% |
16.2% |
15.6% |
15.0% |
14.4% |
13.8% |
13.2% |
12.6% |
12.0% |
12.0% |
|
| Asset turnover |
4.0 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
|
| ROI % |
50.1% |
55.7% |
59.0% |
42.5% |
40.4% |
30.3% |
32.5% |
30.9% |
29.8% |
27.4% |
26.5% |
26.0% |
25.7% |
25.5% |
25.5% |
25.6% |
25.6% |
25.4% |
25.1% |
25.8% |
|
| ROE % |
38.1% |
40.7% |
43.6% |
32.4% |
29.4% |
21.8% |
21.9% |
21.4% |
20.8% |
18.8% |
18.1% |
17.7% |
17.4% |
17.3% |
17.2% |
17.2% |
17.1% |
17.0% |
16.7% |
17.2% |
|
| Equity ratio % |
51.9% |
52.8% |
55.5% |
55.5% |
62.2% |
65.4% |
68.3% |
69.5% |
70.5% |
70.7% |
70.8% |
70.6% |
70.3% |
69.7% |
69.0% |
68.2% |
67.4% |
66.8% |
66.2% |
65.8% |
|
|
| DCF Valuation |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003e |
2004e |
2005e |
2006e |
2007e |
2008e |
2009e |
2010e |
2011e |
2012e |
2013e |
2014e |
2015e |
2016e |
2017e |
TRM |
| |
| EBIT |
2489.0 |
3908.0 |
5861.0 |
5237.0 |
5420.0 |
4778.7 |
5862.0 |
6275.3 |
6643.5 |
6712.5 |
6893.8 |
7114.9 |
7333.2 |
7533.0 |
7711.7 |
7858.9 |
7949.0 |
7978.3 |
7944.2 |
8301.7 |
|
| +/- Share of assoc. |
6.4 |
-5.0 |
-16.0 |
-12.0 |
-19.0 |
-12.8 |
-40.0 |
-40.0 |
-40.0 |
-35.0 |
-30.0 |
-25.0 |
-20.0 |
-15.0 |
-10.0 |
-5.0 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
|
| - Taxes on cont. oper. |
-737.0 |
-1189.0 |
-1780.0 |
-1478.0 |
-1557.0 |
-1532.3 |
-1860.0 |
-2051.4 |
-2142.5 |
-2170.2 |
-2235.3 |
-2311.8 |
-2385.7 |
-2452.1 |
-2509.6 |
-2555.4 |
-2582.5 |
-2590.8 |
-2579.4 |
-2690.4 |
|
| - Tax, fin. expenses |
-62.8 |
-80.5 |
-57.6 |
-36.9 |
-52.2 |
5.8 |
-94.2 |
-38.2 |
-38.2 |
-38.7 |
-41.2 |
-43.7 |
-46.2 |
-48.7 |
-51.2 |
-53.8 |
-56.3 |
-58.8 |
-61.3 |
-63.8 |
|
| + Tax, fin. income |
51.2 |
62.9 |
87.4 |
69.6 |
94.7 |
62.3 |
126.5 |
147.0 |
166.6 |
138.9 |
148.7 |
157.6 |
164.8 |
170.2 |
173.3 |
174.4 |
174.6 |
174.8 |
174.9 |
176.1 |
|
|
| Operating cash flow |
1746.8 |
2696.4 |
4094.8 |
3779.7 |
3886.4 |
3301.7 |
3994.2 |
4292.7 |
4589.4 |
4607.5 |
4736.0 |
4892.1 |
5046.1 |
5187.5 |
5314.2 |
5419.2 |
5484.8 |
5508.5 |
5488.4 |
5738.5 |
|
| + Total depreciation |
502.4 |
631.0 |
869.0 |
1430.0 |
1311.0 |
1127.8 |
778.6 |
725.4 |
589.4 |
600.6 |
644.4 |
691.4 |
739.8 |
791.6 |
841.8 |
937.5 |
1022.8 |
1099.5 |
1169.9 |
1234.6 |
|
|
| Gross cash flow |
2249.2 |
3327.4 |
4963.8 |
5209.7 |
5197.4 |
4429.5 |
4772.7 |
5018.1 |
5178.9 |
5208.0 |
5380.4 |
5583.5 |
5785.9 |
5979.1 |
6156.0 |
6356.7 |
6507.6 |
6608.0 |
6658.3 |
6973.1 |
|
| - Ch. in working cap. |
-456.3 |
176.0 |
-787.0 |
1186.0 |
456.0 |
45.7 |
-573.9 |
-41.6 |
-45.5 |
-50.7 |
-53.9 |
-54.5 |
-57.7 |
-59.1 |
-60.3 |
-60.2 |
-56.2 |
-51.3 |
-45.5 |
-47.1 |
|
| + Inc. in nib. l-t liab. |
102.4 |
-14.0 |
0.0 |
115.0 |
21.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
| - Gross capex |
-1133.8 |
-1898.0 |
-3770.0 |
-1954.0 |
-141.0 |
-700.0 |
-738.8 |
-756.7 |
-785.9 |
-854.9 |
-856.4 |
-906.7 |
-963.1 |
-1011.1 |
-1169.7 |
-1240.5 |
-1305.5 |
-1367.0 |
-1424.0 |
-1483.6 |
|
|
| Free oper. cash flow |
761.4 |
1591.4 |
406.8 |
4556.7 |
5533.4 |
3780.2 |
3465.0 |
4224.8 |
4352.5 |
4307.4 |
4475.2 |
4627.3 |
4770.1 |
4913.9 |
4931.0 |
5061.0 |
5150.8 |
5194.7 |
5193.7 |
5447.4 |
|
| +/- Other items |
31.0 |
-79.0 |
-229.0 |
-1672.0 |
-619.0 |
9.0 |
-140.0 |
-180.0 |
-180.0 |
-205.0 |
-230.0 |
-255.0 |
-280.0 |
-305.0 |
-330.0 |
-355.0 |
-380.0 |
-405.0 |
-430.0 |
-455.0 |
|
|
| FCFF |
792.3 |
1512.4 |
177.8 |
2884.7 |
4914.4 |
3789.2 |
3325.0 |
4044.8 |
4172.5 |
4102.4 |
4245.2 |
4372.3 |
4490.1 |
4608.9 |
4601.0 |
4706.0 |
4770.8 |
4789.7 |
4763.7 |
4992.4 |
139138.7 |
| Disc. FCFF |
|
|
|
|
|
3727.2 |
3021.3 |
3395.2 |
3235.4 |
2938.8 |
2809.3 |
2672.9 |
2535.7 |
2404.5 |
2217.4 |
2095.2 |
1962.2 |
1819.8 |
1672.0 |
1618.7 |
45114.3 |
|
| Cum. disc. FCFF |
|
|
|
|
|
83240.0 |
79512.8 |
76491.5 |
73096.3 |
69860.9 |
66922.1 |
64112.8 |
61439.9 |
58904.1 |
56499.6 |
54282.2 |
52187.1 |
50224.9 |
48405.1 |
46733.1 |
|
| - Int-bear. debt |
|
|
|
|
|
1225.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| + Cash and bank |
|
|
|
|
|
12667.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| + Inv. above BV |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Value of equity |
|
|
|
|
|
94682.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| / No of shares |
|
|
|
|
|
4795.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fair value (DCF) |
|
|
|
|
|
19.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| EVA Valuation |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003e |
2004e |
2005e |
2006e |
2007e |
2008e |
2009e |
2010e |
2011e |
2012e |
2013e |
2014e |
2015e |
2016e |
2017e |
TRM |
| |
| EBIT |
2489.0 |
3908.0 |
5861.0 |
5237.0 |
5420.0 |
4778.7 |
5862.0 |
6275.3 |
6643.5 |
6712.5 |
6893.8 |
7114.9 |
7333.2 |
7533.0 |
7711.7 |
7858.9 |
7949.0 |
7978.3 |
7944.2 |
8301.7 |
|
| - Taxes on EBIT |
-740.8 |
-1186.6 |
-1713.9 |
-1369.5 |
-1473.3 |
-1417.4 |
-1787.9 |
-1914.0 |
-2026.3 |
-2080.9 |
-2137.1 |
-2205.6 |
-2273.3 |
-2335.2 |
-2390.6 |
-2436.3 |
-2464.2 |
-2473.3 |
-2462.7 |
-2573.5 |
|
|
| NOPLAT |
1748.2 |
2721.4 |
4147.1 |
3867.5 |
3946.7 |
3361.3 |
4074.1 |
4361.4 |
4617.2 |
4631.6 |
4756.7 |
4909.3 |
5059.9 |
5197.8 |
5321.1 |
5422.7 |
5484.8 |
5505.0 |
5481.5 |
5728.2 |
5521.3 |
| +/- Other items |
29.5 |
-104.0 |
-281.3 |
-1759.8 |
-679.3 |
-50.6 |
-219.9 |
-248.7 |
-207.8 |
-229.2 |
-250.7 |
-272.2 |
-293.8 |
-315.4 |
-336.9 |
-358.4 |
-380.0 |
-401.6 |
-423.1 |
-444.6 |
|
| - Cost of capital |
-190.9 |
-272.1 |
-363.4 |
-668.6 |
-604.1 |
-467.5 |
-428.1 |
-471.8 |
-477.4 |
-496.8 |
-521.6 |
-543.1 |
-564.9 |
-587.7 |
-610.3 |
-641.9 |
-671.4 |
-699.0 |
-724.9 |
-749.2 |
-557.7 |
|
| EVA |
1586.9 |
2345.3 |
3502.4 |
1439.1 |
2663.3 |
2843.2 |
3426.1 |
3640.9 |
3932.1 |
3905.7 |
3984.5 |
4093.9 |
4201.2 |
4294.7 |
4373.9 |
4422.3 |
4433.4 |
4404.5 |
4333.5 |
4534.3 |
4963.6 |
| PV of TRM EVA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
132378.6 |
| Disc. EVA |
|
|
|
|
|
2796.7 |
3113.1 |
3056.2 |
3049.0 |
2797.8 |
2636.8 |
2502.8 |
2372.6 |
2240.6 |
2108.0 |
1968.9 |
1823.4 |
1673.4 |
1521.0 |
1470.2 |
42922.4 |
| PV of cap. base change |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-847.1 |
|
| Cum. disc. EVA |
|
|
|
|
|
77205.7 |
74409.0 |
71295.9 |
68239.7 |
65190.7 |
62392.9 |
59756.1 |
57253.4 |
54880.8 |
52640.2 |
50532.3 |
48563.4 |
46740.0 |
45066.5 |
43545.5 |
|
| + Capital inv. |
|
|
|
|
|
6034.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - Int-bear. debt |
|
|
|
|
|
1225.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| + Cash and bank |
|
|
|
|
|
12667.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| +/- Inv. above BV |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Value of equity |
|
|
|
|
|
94682.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| / No of shares |
|
|
|
|
|
4795.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fair value (EVA) |
|
|
|
|
|
19.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cost of capital (WACC) |
2003e |
| |
| Tax rate (WACC) % |
31.0% |
| Target D/(D+E) |
5.0% |
| Cost of debt % |
5.5% |
| Equity beta |
1.1 |
| Equity market risk premium (%-points) |
4.0% |
| Risk-free interest rate |
4.2% |
| Cost of equity |
8.5% |
| WACC % |
8.2% |
|
|
|
|
